The present regime has miserably failed to improve any of the sectors responsible for the economic hardships of the nation. At the moment our economic system is standing at the verge of collapse. In the coming pages, we will try to explore the causes of economic problems; their effects on the socio- political landscape of the country and finally discuss same suggestions to salvage the economic recovery.
The growth rate of about 3. The government in its budget scheme projected the growth rate at 4. The low economic performance leads to wide-spread unemployment, poverty, malnutrition, inflation etc. About one million young people enter the labour force of the country every year, to absorb such a huge proposition of unemployment youth in jobs, we need to have at least 7 percent economic growth rate for at least five years.
The current trend, however, is just compounding the joblessness and pushing millions move into the poverty trap. All these hardships are hampering investment, both domestic and foreign in employment generating sectors, i. There are reports that a number of textile manufacturers have relocated their industry in other countries such as Bangladesh, Vietnam, Sri Lanka and Tanzania etc.
The Government and the economic managers should be mindful of the fact that de-industrialization has heavy toll on the social development of a society.
When a factory is shut down either temporarily because of frequent power outages or permanently shifted to another destination—hundreds and thousands of households are forced to starve until their bread-winners have a new job.
Apart from its implications on human development, de-industrialization or low industrial growth has serious repercussions for over-all economic development. Economic survey of Pakistan has estimated that the manufacturing sector is employing 14 percent of the workforce, and contributing about 63 percent of taxes and making 25 percent of the GDP. Another equally neglected area is the agriculture sector that employs 45 percent of the workforce contributes 22 percent to the GDP and paying only 1 percent in income tax.
This sector requires urgent reforms in terms of redistribution of cultivable land, bringing the sector into the tax net and improving the lot of the less fortunate peasantry.
But added value of the crops jumped to Rs. Inspite of this increase in value, no additional taxes are forthcoming. Moreover, the substantial share of profits from agricultural proceeds is pocketed by landed gentry.
More often than not, they are at the driving seat of the political system of the state as well. The land mafia is running the political show of the country in a way that furthers its vested interests.
They discourage social and infrastructure development projects in their areas rather fiefdoms. The gist of the matter is that the present politico-economic order favours the perpetuation of vested interests of the elitist groups in Pakistan today.
The informal sector of economy, like agricultural, small and medium enterprises and services sectors employees more than 60 percent of the workforce, it contributes about 35 percent to 50 percent of the GDP. This sector has yet to see the necessary reforms and regulations. According to an International Labour Organization report, the workers employed in the informal sector are more vulnerable to exploitation.
They are paid low wages, maltreated, over-worked and are not covered by social security nets. Tax evasions are rampant. The economic and political administrators need to pay special attention to modernize and regularize this expanding sector.
The services sector, nevertheless, is a redeeming feature of the struggling Pakistani economy. This sector has seen phenomenal growth over the decade. This sector telecom, banking, real estate development marketing—contributes more than 50 percent of the GDP. Its share in jobs and taxes is 41 percent and 36 percent respectively. These sector employees are educated and trained workforce. A sustainable economic growth requires a balanced growth in all the sectors of the economy.
It further requires reforms in the total system, reforms in energy sector. Uninterrupted provision of energy is the fundamental theme of sustainable economic growth.
The infrastructure is too weak to support the march of economic growth. Developmental projects always feature as the lowest priority of the rulers of the country. In such a block scenario foreign investors are reluctant to try their luck in our part of the economic world. Foreign Direct Investment FDI is welcomed as an impetus to the sustainable economic growth of a country especially of a developing one. Industries and other business enterprises are facing acute shortages of electricity and gas.
In the face of bleeding energy problems the economy is merely surviving, not thriving. The manufacturing units are lying dead across the country. Alternate energy resources are increasing the cost of production, thereby losing the competitive value of Pakistan exports. Foreign investors are reluctant to invest in such a grim situation of economic growth. It further projected that energy crisis has eaten up over Rs. The incumbent government has failed to bridge the gap between electric generation 15, and demand 20, MW.
Reforms in energy sector are needed on war-footing, lest the socio- economic landscape slides into oblivion and darkness. The story of FDI in Pakistan is the bulk of foreign investment goes into the services sector like telecom, Banking etc. But now it has touched lowest ebb-about m USD has been reported to have invested by foreign investors during the fiscal years Foreign investors are reluctant to invest in Pakistan mainly for the following resources; energy crises, high interest rate, security situation in country, slow economic growth rate, fiscal crisis in the west and bad governance and corruption at home.
Government generates revenues to meet their expenditures and finance public sector development projects through collection of taxes. But the story to tax collection is quite dismal in Pakistan.
Hence we are, more often than not, in short supply of funds to meet expenditures and complete development projects on time. Pakistan is one of the lowest ranked countries in tax-to-GDP ratio. Tax evasion is very common phenomenon in the tax regime of Pakistan.
This discovered gentry pay no taxes. The remaining Rs. The system of tax collection needs overhauling. The tax-net needs to be widened to cover all formal and informal sectors of the economy. The tax evasion must be dealt with penal liabilities. Corruption on the part of tax collector should also be brought to an end.
A transparency International report gave another but interesting account of tax evasion. It is yet to be seen if the scheme helps widen the tax net and generate more funds. The key to improve the economic outlook lies in increasing the tax-to-GDP ratio. Yet another cause of sluggish economic growth is the excessive borrowing of the present govt.
The government is also borrowing from the State Bank and the commercial Banks, hence doubting the domestic debt-liability. The national debt currently stands at Excessive borrowing is made to meet the fiscal deficit which stands at 08 percent of the GDP or Rs. Chinese Central Bank allowed managed inflation according to needs of Chinese domestic investors and exporters, and allowed their currency to gain value against the USD slowly, transitioning their economy from exports towards consumption and investment.
Yuan reached 8. After , they have followed transitioning of economy towards consumption and investment; allowed their currency to slowly gain value against the USD. Exports declined, current account deficit widened; US economy boomed and in , we see Chinese financial crisis.
Their currency has entered a chokepoint, after which it cannot be kept devalued, and now Chinese yuan has gained base points to 6. Real estate has a bubble, but if allowed deleveraging and independent operation of Chinese Central Bank, they can handle it..
Anyhow my suggestions for strong economy: 1 Enhancing industrial services through technology and innovations: It directly needs high quality education and research. Supportive factors are: 1 Better transport system: It greatly affects agricultural economy. Increases productivity increases GDP growth and hence the country flourishes. But transition towards nuclear and solar plants should also be encouraged to avoid climate change effects. After solving BoP crisis, the next important things to do are:.
Floating exchange rate regime. Invest in education. MoUs between industries and universities. Funding at Professor level — for supervising industrial needed research projects through fellowships. Revisiting FTAs. Invest in different sources of energy. Providing low-interest loans to businessmen. Reform revenue department. Deregulation of market. Attracting capital investment. Improving security situation.
Banning all terrorist organisations. Banning all extremist organisations. Invest in health. Automatic approval of FDI. Invest in tourism. Developing IT hubs in major districts. Faculty growth scholarships. Joint-venture capital investments. Industrial support. Investing in technology.
Protecting IP rights. Laws for non-commodity exports. Having good and friendly relations with all the exporting countries. Investing in petroleum products, metallurgical research and AI.
Capital and liberal market. MoUs between universities and foreign companies for undergraduate level research and scholarships. Faculty training scholarships. Agriculture subsidie.
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